Value Betting Explained: Finding +EV Bets That Win Long Term
Discover value betting. Learn to calculate expected value, identify +EV opportunities, and understand why most bettors lose money.
Quick Answer: What Is Value Betting?
Value betting means wagering when the odds offered by a sportsbook imply a lower probability of winning than your own estimate. Another way to put it: you’re getting better odds than you should.
Golden rule: Value betting equals +EV (positive expected value). If your probability estimate is correct, you make money long-term.
How Expected Value Works
The Basic Formula
Expected Value (EV) = (Probability of Win × Profit) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)Example 1: +EV Bet
Scenario:
- Sportsbook odds: +150 (American), 3/2 (fractional), 2.50 (decimal)
- Implied probability: 40%
- Your research says true probability: 50%
Odds comparison:
- American: +150
- Fractional: 3/2
- Decimal: 2.50
- All mean the same payout
Calculation:
EV = (0.50 × $150) - (0.50 × $100)
EV = $75 - $50 = +$25+EV means: Every $100 bet earns $25 in profit long-term. This is value.
Example 2: -EV Bet
Scenario:
- Sportsbook odds: +200 (American), 2/1 (fractional), 3.00 (decimal)
- Implied probability: 33.33%
- Your research says true probability: 30%
Odds comparison:
- American: +200
- Fractional: 2/1
- Decimal: 3.00
Calculation:
EV = (0.30 × $200) - (0.70 × $100)
EV = $60 - $70 = -$10-EV means: Every $100 bet loses $10 long-term. Most casual bettors make -EV bets constantly.
Why Casual Bettors Lose Money
The vig (sportsbook fee) means almost every bet has -EV for the average bettor.
The Vig Reality
| Scenario | True Probability | Fair Odds | Sportsbook Odds | Format Comparison | Implied | Your EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50/50 game | 50% each | +100/-100, 1/1, 2.00 | -110 vs -110 (10/11 vs 10/11), 1.91 vs 1.91 | 52.4% each | -$4.76 per $100 | |
| 33/67 game | 33% vs 67% | +200/-200, 2/1, 3.00 | +180 vs -220 (9/5 vs 11/10), 2.80 vs 2.45 | 36% vs 31% | -$4.33 to +$6.67 |
Odds format breakdown for -110:
- American: -110
- Fractional: 10/11
- Decimal: 1.91
- Implied probability: 52.4%
Bottom line: Without superior knowledge or research, you’re paying 4-5% on every bet. That’s why most people lose money over time.
Finding Value Opportunities
1. Specialize in One Sport/Niche
Better to know everything about:
- One league (e.g., MLB, Premier League)
- One market (e.g., player props, live betting)
- One type of bet (e.g., totals vs. moneyline)
Why: You develop pattern recognition others miss.
2. Follow Line Movement
Track how odds change from opening to game time.
| Time | Odds Movement | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Opening: +150 (+200, 2/1, 3.00) | Public bets underdog | Value might exist |
| 1 hour before: +140 (+175, 7/5, 2.75) | Sharper money on underdog | Value decreasing |
| Game time: +130 (+130, 13/10, 2.30) | Market settled | No value |
Pattern: If odds move significantly early (before most bettors act), sharp bettors found value.
3. Shop for Best Odds (Line Shopping)
Different sportsbooks offer different odds for the same game.
Example: Chiefs vs Texans
| Sportsbook | Chiefs ML | Texans ML | Better Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookie A | -140 (+175, 5/7, 1.71) | +120 (+120, 6/5, 2.20) | +120 (Texans), 6/5, 2.20 |
| Bookie B | -145 (+162, 20/13, 1.69) | +125 (+125, 5/4, 2.25) | +125 (Texans), 5/4, 2.25 |
| Bookie C | -150 (+167, 2/3, 1.67) | +130 (+130, 13/10, 2.30) | +125 (Texans), 5/4, 2.25 |
| Best | -140 (+175, 5/7, 1.71) | +125 (+125, 5/4, 2.25) | +5% better payout |
Line shopping: Always getting the best odds adds 2-5% to your long-term return. It’s free value.
4. Find Inefficiencies
Markets with less sharp money have more value opportunities.
| Market | Why Less Efficient? |
|---|---|
| Player props | Less public data than game lines |
| Live betting | Odds fluctuate, sportsbooks are slower to adjust |
| Small markets | College sports, obscure leagues |
| Derivatives (Alternate spreads, team totals) | Fewer bettors watching |
Advanced Value Concepts
Closing Line Value (CLV)
Definition: Did you bet closer to opening or closing line?
| Type | Example |
|---|---|
| Beating closing line | Bet +140 (+175, 7/5, 2.75) before it moves to +150 (+167, 2/3, 2.50) |
| Better than closing | Bet +150 (+167, 2/3, 2.50) when line closes at +140 (+175, 7/5, 2.75) |
The sharp edge: Professional bettors consistently beat closing lines. Casual bettors don’t.
Kelly Criterion: Bankroll Management for +EV Bets
Kelly Criterion tells you how much to bet based on your edge.
Simple Kelly Formula
Kelly % = (Edge ÷ Odds)
Edge = True Probability - Implied ProbabilityExample: +EV Bet
Scenario:
- True probability: 55%
- Implied probability (at -110, 10/11, 1.91): 52.4%
- Edge: 55% - 52.4% = 2.6%
Kelly calculation:
Kelly % = 0.026 ÷ 1.91 (decimal equivalent)
Kelly % = 1.36%Reality check: Kelly says bet 1.36% of bankroll. For $1,000 bankroll = $13.60. Most casual bettors bet way more than Kelly recommends.
Fractional Kelly (safer): Many bettors use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly to reduce variance while preserving growth.
Value Betting Checklist
Before placing any bet, run through this:
| Question | If Yes → Continue |
|---|---|
| Is implied probability less than your estimated probability? | ✅ Check |
| Do you have data or research backing your estimate? | ✅ Verify |
| Are you getting the best available odds? | ✅ Line shop |
| Is bet size appropriate for bankroll (1-2% max)? | ✅ Check |
| Are you betting within your niche of expertise? | ✅ Honest |
| Did you shop lines (check 3+ books)? | ✅ Confirm |
Common Value Betting Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It’s Wrong | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| ”I feel it’s value” | No calculation, just gut feeling | Calculate EV before betting |
| Betting on unfamiliar sports | No true probability estimate | Stick to what you know |
| Ignoring variance (one bad beat = abandon system) | Variance is real, losing streaks happen | Trust the math, not recent results |
| Betting too much on +EV edges | Kelly criterion exists for a reason | Bet 1-2% of bankroll |
| Chasing -EV looking for “easy money” | -EV is still -EV | Walk away, no value found today |
Is Value Betting for You?
Who Succeeds at Value Betting
- Data analysts who can calculate probabilities quickly
- Sports experts with deep knowledge of one niche
- Disciplined bettors who can handle variance without emotion
- Patient bettors who can go weeks without good +EV bets
Who Struggles
- Recreational bettors who bet for fun (nothing wrong with this!)
- Impulsive bettors who “feel” value instead of calculate it
- People betting outside their expertise (guessing, not estimating)
- Those who can’t handle variance (panic when on losing streaks)
Honest assessment: If you’re not doing EV calculations before every bet, you’re not value betting. You’re recreational gambling, which is fine—just be honest about it.
Summary
Value betting means finding +EV opportunities—where your probability estimate exceeds the sportsbook’s implied probability. The formula is simple: (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake).
To win long-term:
- Specialize in one area (deep knowledge beats general knowledge)
- Calculate EV before betting (don’t guess)
- Shop lines for best odds (free 2-5% value)
- Use proper bankroll management (1-2% per bet)
- Accept variance—losing streaks happen even with +EV bets
Hard truth: Most casual bettors don’t value bet. They bet what they want, not what the math says. If you’re not calculating EV, accept that you’re paying for entertainment.
If you’re serious about value betting: Track every bet, review monthly, and treat it like a data-driven business. Most people don’t have the discipline—which is why sportsbooks stay profitable.
