Arbitrage Betting Explained: The Math Behind Risk-Free Profits
Guaranteed profits exist in betting. Here's how arbitrage betting works, the risks involved, and how to find opportunities in 2026.
What Is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting (also called “surebets” or “arbing”) involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event across different sportsbooks to guarantee profit regardless of what happens.
How it’s possible: Different sportsbooks set their own odds based on their customers’ betting patterns. This creates situations where combined implied probability across multiple books is less than 100%—meaning guaranteed profit exists.
A Simple Example
Two sportsbooks offer different odds on a tennis match:
| Sportsbook | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker 1 | 2.10 (+110) | 1.80 (-125) |
| Bookmaker 2 | 1.80 (-125) | 2.10 (+110) |
The arbitrage bet:
- Bet $52.38 on Player A at Bookmaker 1 (odds 2.10)
- Bet $47.62 on Player B at Bookmaker 2 (odds 2.10)
- Total stake: $100
Either way you win:
- If Player A wins: $52.38 × 2.10 = $110.00
- If Player B wins: $47.62 × 2.10 = $100.00
Guaranteed profit: $0.00 ($10 return minus $100 stake = $0 profit)
Wait, that’s not profitable. Let me recalculate properly.
The Arbitrage Math (Simplified)
Arbitrage exists when the sum of implied probabilities is less than 100%.
Step 1: Convert Odds to Implied Probability
For decimal odds: Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
For American odds: Positive odds (e.g., +150): Probability = 100 / (150 + 100) = 40% Negative odds (e.g., -150): Probability = 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%
Step 2: Check for Arbitrage
If the sum of all outcomes’ implied probability is less than 100%, arbitrage exists.
Example with real arbitrage:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Team A wins | 2.20 (+120) | 45.45% |
| Team B wins | 1.80 (-125) | 55.56% |
| Total | 101.01% |
That’s over 100%, so no arbitrage. Let’s try another:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Team A wins at Bookmaker 1 | 2.15 (+115) | 46.51% |
| Team B wins at Bookmaker 2 | 2.15 (+115) | 46.51% |
| Total | 93.02% |
Arbitrage found! The 6.98% gap is your guaranteed profit.
Step 3: Calculate How Much to Bet on Each
To find stake for each outcome: Stake = (Implied Probability / Total Probability) × Total Bankroll
Using the example above ($100 total):
- Team A: (46.51% / 93.02%) × $100 = $50.00
- Team B: (46.51% / 93.02%) × $100 = $50.00
Guaranteed return: $50 × 2.15 = $107.50 (either way) Guaranteed profit: $7.50 (7.5% return)
Real-world scenario: Professional arbers typically find 1-4% opportunities. 7.5% is rare and disappears quickly.
Where to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
1. Bonus Arbitrage (Bonus Whoring)
Many sportsbooks offer deposit bonuses with turnover requirements.
Example: Deposit $100, get $50 bonus after betting $500 at minimum odds.
The arb: Use matched betting (guaranteed profit from free bets) to convert the bonus into withdrawable cash.
2. Soft Bookmaker Mismatches
“Soft” books (smaller, local sportsbooks) set odds loosely. “Sharp” books (Pinnacle, Betfair) set accurate odds.
When a soft book’s odds drift from sharp books, arbitrage exists.
3. Line Shopping Across Multiple Books
Have accounts at 10+ sportsbooks. Compare odds before every bet.
Tools that help:
- Odds comparison sites (Oddschecker, OddsPortal)
- Arbitrage finder services (Alerts, RebelBetting, OddsJam)
- Spreadsheet tracking
4. Live Betting Arbitrage
During games, odds shift rapidly. Sometimes books disagree on momentum or injury impact.
Live arb warning: You need to act in seconds. Odds change fast, and you might get one bet placed but the other rejected.
The Hidden Costs of Arbitrage Betting
1. Bookmaker Limits and Bans
Sportsbooks hate arbers. They will:
- Limit your stakes (maximum bet $5 instead of $500)
- Close your account (call it “business decision”)
- Delay withdrawals (up to 30 days)
- Charge fees on certain payment methods
How they spot you:
- Betting on all outcomes of the same event
- Always betting obscure leagues
- Betting maximum stake on every opportunity
- Instant betting (no research time)
2. Transaction Fees
Deposits and withdrawals cost money:
- Credit card: 3-4% fee
- Bank transfer: $10-50 per transaction
- Crypto: 1-3% network fees
- E-wallets: 2-5% fees
These eat into your 2-4% arb profits.
3. Exchange Rates
If you’re betting in USD but depositing GBP/€/AUD, currency conversion fees apply (usually 1-2%).
4. Time Cost
Finding arbs takes hours. Is 2% profit worth your time at $20/hour?
Arbitrage Betting Strategy: What Actually Works
For Beginners: Don’t Start Here
Arbitrage looks easy but is brutal. You need:
- 10+ sportsbook accounts (funded and verified)
- Capital to spread across books ($5,000+ for meaningful profits)
- Dedicated software ($50-200/month)
- Fast execution (odds expire in seconds)
- Time to monitor (hours daily)
Better starting point: Learn value betting, bankroll management, and reading odds first. Arbitrage is an advanced strategy.
For Serious Arbers: The Professional Approach
1. Never bet obvious arbs
- Avoid betting on both outcomes at the same book
- Space bets out by minutes/hours if possible
- Mix in some “mug bets” (normal-looking wagers)
2. Rotate accounts
- Don’t use the same book every time
- Have backup accounts ready when one gets limited
- Use VPNs for geo-restricted books (check terms first!)
3. Focus on low-profile leagues
- NFL/MLB/NBA arbs disappear instantly
- Lower leagues (Championship, Liga MX, cricket) have slower adjustments
4. Track everything
- Every arb found, every bet placed, every profit/loss
- Note which books are soft/quick to limit
- Calculate hourly wage (time vs. profit)
Arbitrage Betting vs. Value Betting
| Aspect | Arbitrage | Value Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Profit guarantee | ✅ Guaranteed | ❌ No guarantee |
| Profit margin | 1-4% | 2-10% long-term |
| Account risk | ⚠️ High (limits/bans) | ✅ Lower |
| Capital needed | High (multiple books) | Medium |
| Time investment | High (constant monitoring) | Medium (research) |
| Learning curve | Steep | Moderate |
Why pros prefer value betting: Higher long-term returns, less bookmaker scrutiny, more sustainable. Arbitrage is useful for bankroll building or bonus clearing.
Arbitrage Calculator (Do the Math)
Quick Formula Check
For 2 outcomes (Team A vs Team B):
(1 / OddsA) + (1 / OddsB) < 100%If true, calculate stakes:
StakeA = (ImpliedProbA / TotalProb) × Bankroll
StakeB = (ImpliedProbB / TotalProb) × Bankroll3-Outcome Arbitrage (Soccer)
Soccer matches have win/draw/lose. Arbitrage exists when:
(1 / OddsWin) + (1 / OddsDraw) + (1 / OddsLose) < 100%Same stake calculation formula applies (divide each implied prob by total).
Realistic Expectations
Beginner Arb Return
- Capital: $500
- Hours per week: 5
- Avg arb found: 2-3%
- Profit: $50-100/month (after fees)
- Reality: Not worth the time for most
Semi-Pro Arb Return
- Capital: $5,000
- Hours per week: 15
- Avg arb found: 2.5%
- Profit: $400-600/month
- Reality: Decent side income, but constant account turnover
Professional Arb Return
- Capital: $20,000+
- Hours per week: 40
- Avg arb found: 3%
- Software cost: $200/month
- Profit: $1,500-2,500/month
- Reality: Full-time job, high stress, accounts banned constantly
Most “pro arbers” exaggerate profits. Real returns are 20-40% annual (not monthly) after accounting for fees, limits, and time costs.
Arbitrage Betting Tools and Software
Free Options
- OddsPortal: Odds comparison across 80+ books
- Oddschecker: Basic comparison for major leagues
- Google Sheets: Manual tracking with odds scraping
Paid Services
- RebelBetting: $89/month, auto-detects arbs
- OddsJam: $149/month, live arbs + historical data
- Alerts: $99/month, instant notifications
- BetBurger: $150/month, covers 70+ books
Spreadsheet Template (DIY)
| Event | Book 1 | Odds 1 | Book 2 | Odds 2 | Arb % | Stake 1 | Stake 2 | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis A vs B | Bovada | 2.20 | Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.0% | $50 | $50 | $3.00 |
Track everything. Calculate your hourly wage. Decide if it’s worth it.
Arbitrage Betting FAQ
Is arbitrage betting legal? Yes, but sportsbooks can refuse your business or limit stakes. Arbitrage itself isn’t illegal anywhere.
Can I make a living from arbitrage? Theoretically yes. Realistically, you’d need $50k+ capital, 10+ accounts, and tolerate constant account restrictions. Most people use it for side income.
How much starting capital do I need? At least $1,000 spread across 3-4 books for meaningful profits. Serious arbing requires $5,000+.
Do sportsbooks track arbitrage bettors? Yes. They use sophisticated algorithms to detect arbing patterns. They also share “blacklisted” customers between books.
What happens if odds change after I place one bet but before the other? You’re stuck with a losing bet. This is the biggest risk in arbitrage—timing errors happen.
Arbitrage Betting Summary
Arbitrage betting guarantees small profits by exploiting odds differences across sportsbooks. The math works (combined implied probability < 100% = guaranteed profit), but the reality is brutal.
Pros:
- Guaranteed profit on each arb
- No gambling on outcomes
- Build bankroll quickly with enough capital
Cons:
- Bookmakers limit and ban arbers
- Profits are small (1-4%)
- High time investment to find opportunities
- Transaction fees eat into profits
The truth: Arbitrage is a grind. It works for some, but value betting is more sustainable long-term. If you try it, start small, track everything, and expect account restrictions.
Better alternative: Learn to find value in odds rather than hunt tiny arbitrage opportunities. The returns are higher, the stress is lower, and sportsbooks won’t ban you for betting smart.
