Point Spread Betting Explained: Complete Guide to Handicap Betting
Understand point spreads in sports betting. How to read -7.5, why half-points exist, and strategies for NFL, NBA, and MLB spread betting in 2026.
What Is Point Spread Betting?
Point spread betting is a handicap system that gives underdogs a virtual head start to make betting more interesting. Instead of just picking who wins, you bet on whether a team covers the spread.
Why spreads exist: If sportsbooks only offered moneyline (who wins), nobody would bet on underdogs. Spreads balance action so both sides get roughly equal bets.
Simple Example
Chiefs vs Texans spread:
- Chiefs -7.5
- Texans +7.5
If you bet Chiefs -7.5: Chiefs must win by 8+ points to cover. A 7-point win = losing bet. If you bet Texans +7.5: Texans can lose by 7 points or less (or win) to cover.
| Final Score | Chiefs -7.5 Result | Texans +7.5 Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs 31, Texans 20 | ✅ WIN (win by 11) | ❌ LOSS |
| Chiefs 28, Texans 21 | ❌ PUSH (win by 7) | ❌ PUSH |
| Chiefs 24, Texans 24 | ❌ LOSS (tie) | ✅ WIN |
| Chiefs 24, Texans 30 | ❌ LOSS | ✅ WIN (underdog wins) |
How to Read Point Spreads
Spread Format
Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
Breakdown:
- Chiefs: The team (or player)
- -7.5: The spread (Chiefs must win by 8+ points)
- (-110): The juice/vig (risk $110 to win $100)
Key Spread Types
| Type | Example | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Chiefs -7.5 | Favorite must win by 8+ |
| +7.5 | Texans +7.5 | Underdog gets 7.5 points |
| -7 | Chiefs -7 | Favorite must win by 7+ (push at exactly 7) |
| PK | Pick ‘em | No spread, bet on winner (moneyline) |
| -3.5 (-105) | Chiefs -3.5 (-105) | Reduced juice (risk $105 to win $100) |
Half-points (.5): These eliminate push possibilities. If spread is -7.5, there’s no tie—either the favorite covers or doesn’t. Sportsbooks like half-points because they avoid refunding pushes.
Why Point Spreads Move
1. Betting Action Imbalance
If 80% of bets come in on Chiefs -7.5, the sportsbook:
- Moves line to Chiefs -8 (encourages Texans bets)
- Increases juice on Chiefs to -115
- Decreases juice on Texans to -105
Goal: Balanced action (50/50 split on bets). Sportsbooks make money from vig, not from gambling on outcomes.
2. Injury News
Star player gets injured:
- Spread moves 1-3 points toward injured team
- Odds shift within minutes
Example: Patrick Mahomes questionable status → Chiefs spread moves from -7.5 to -5.5.
3. Weather Conditions
Heavy rain/snow favors underdogs (slower game, fewer possessions). Extreme cold affects kicking (fewer field goals, more punts).
4. Public vs. Sharp Money
Public bettors: Bet on popular teams (Cowboys, Lakers), favorites Sharp bettors: Bet on value, ignore team popularity
If sharps pound an underdog early, the spread might move even when 70% of public bets are on the favorite.
Point Spreads by Sport
NFL Spreads (Most Popular)
Typical spreads: 3 to 14 points Key numbers: 3, 7 (most common margins of victory)
Why 3 and 7 matter:
- Field goals = 3 points
- Touchdowns = 7 points
- Extra points = 1 point
NFL strategy: Around spreads of 3 and 7, buy the hook if available. Converting -7.5 to -7 costs extra juice but avoids losing by exactly 7.
Example NFL betting:
- -3: Most common spread (field goal difference)
- -7: Second most common (touchdown difference)
- -14: Two-touchdown favorite (big mismatch)
NBA Spreads (High Variance)
Typical spreads: 2 to 15 points Key numbers: 2, 3, 4 (free throws, layups)
NBA特殊性:
- Games are high-scoring (more variance)
- Stars dominate (injuries matter more)
- Back-to-backs affect spreads (tired teams)
Example:
- Lakers -5.5 vs Kings +5.5
- If Lakers win 105-100, they cover (-5.5)
- If Lakers win 105-101, they don’t cover (only -4)
MLB Spreads (Run Line)
Run line: Always -1.5 for favorites, +1.5 for underdogs Unlike NBA/NFL: Spreads are fixed (-1.5), only odds change
Example:
- Yankees -1.5 (-150) vs Red Sox +1.5 (+130)
If you bet Yankees -1.5: Yankees must win by 2+ runs. Winning 5-4 = losing bet. If you bet Red Sox +1.5: Red Sox can lose by 1 run and still cover.
MLB alternative: Alternate run lines (e.g., Yankees -2.5 or -0.5) available at most books with adjusted odds.
Spread Betting Strategies That Work
1. Bet Against the Public (Fade the Public)
When 70%+ of bets are on one side, consider the other side.
Why it works: Public overreacts to narratives (“Cowboys always win big games”). Sportsbooks adjust lines to balance action, creating value on the contrarian side.
2. Shop for the Best Number
Different books offer different spreads.
Example:
- Book A: Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
- Book B: Chiefs -7 (-110)
- Book C: Chiefs -7 (-115)
Book B is best ( Chiefs -7 with -110 juice). Book A adds half-point disadvantage. Book C costs more.
Rule: Always check multiple books before betting. One point difference matters.
3. Buy the Hook (When Worth It)
“Buying the hook” means paying extra juice to move spread by 0.5 points in your favor.
Example:
- Chiefs -7.5 (-110) → Chiefs -7 (-120) (bought hook)
Cost: Extra $10 on $100 bet (-120 instead of -110) Benefit: If Chiefs win by exactly 7, you get push instead of loss.
When to buy hooks:
- NFL spreads of -3 and -7 (key numbers)
- Close games where every point matters
- When juice increase is minimal (e.g., -115 instead of -110)
4. Middle Opportunities (Advanced)
A “middle” exists when spreads from different books create overlapping scenarios where you could win both bets.
Example:
- Book A: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
- Book B: Chiefs +7.5 (-110)
If Chiefs win by exactly 7 points:
- Book A bet: Chiefs -6.5 = WIN (cover)
- Book B bet: Chiefs +7.5 = WIN (cover)
- Result: Both bets win!
Risk: If Chiefs win by 6 or less, you lose one bet. If Chiefs win by 8+, you lose the other.
Middle warning: Most middles never hit. You’re betting for a narrow window. Only attempt when the gap is 1.5+ points.
5. Teaser Bets (Popular Alternative)
Teasers let you move the spread in your favor by 6, 6.5, or 7 points, but you must bet on 2+ outcomes (parlay).
Example 6-point teaser:
- Chiefs -7.5 → Chiefs -1.5
- 49ers +3.5 → 49ers +9.5
Cost: You must win both bets at reduced odds (usually -130).
Teaser strategy: Focus on crossing key numbers (3, 7) in NFL. Converting -7.5 to -1.5 is valuable (crosses 3, 7).
Spread Betting Mistakes to Avoid
1. Betting Every Favorite
The public loves favorites, but they don’t always cover.
NFL 2024-25 season data:
- Favorites covered 51.2% of the time
- Road favorites covered less than home favorites
- Big favorites (-7.5+) covered only 47% of the time
Lesson: Favorites don’t win by margin often enough.
2. Ignoring Juice (Vig)
-110 juice means you need to win 52.4% of bets to break even.
Spread betting with different juice:
- -110: Need 52.4% win rate
- -105: Need 51.2% win rate
- -120: Need 54.5% win rate
Lesson: Always check juice. A worse spread with better juice might be the better bet.
3. Chasing Losses on “Sure Thing” Spreads
“There’s no way Team X doesn’t cover -3” is how people lose money.
Reality: Every spread is probabilistic, not guaranteed.
4. Betting Without Checking Injuries
Star player out +1.5 points spread move? That matters.
Check before betting:
- Injury reports
- Suspensions
- Weather forecasts
- Coaching changes
5. Overbetting Single Games
Spread betting should be 1-2% of bankroll per game, not 10%.
Example with $1,000 bankroll:
- Safe: $10-20 per bet
- Risky: $50-100 per bet
- Reckless: $200+ per bet
Live Spread Betting (In-Game)
How It Works
Odds shift constantly during games.
Example: NFL live betting:
| Game Situation | Spread (Pre-game) | Spread (Live) |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs up 14-0, 2nd quarter | Chiefs -7.5 | Chiefs -21.5 |
| Chiefs down 0-7, 4th quarter | Chiefs -7.5 | Chiefs +3.5 |
Why live spreads move:
- Score margin
- Time remaining
- Momentum shifts
- Injuries during game
Live spread risk: You have seconds to act. Odds change fast, and you might bet on outdated numbers.
Live Spread Strategy
1. Fade overreactions: If Chiefs go up 14-0 early, public overreacts. Live spread might be Chiefs -20, but true value might be -15. Bet the underdog live.
2. Watch momentum: Teams playing poorly despite winning = fade them. Teams playing well despite losing = back them.
3. Know fourth-quarter dynamics:
- Trailing teams take more risks (might score more or turn over ball)
- Leading teams play conservatively (might not cover big spreads)
Spread Betting Bankroll Management
Kelly Criterion (Advanced)
Calculate optimal bet size based on edge and odds:
Formula:
Bet % = (Edge × Odds - 1) / (Odds - 1)Example:
- Your edge: 4%
- Odds: -110 (1.91 decimal)
- Bet % = (0.04 × 1.91 - 1) / (1.91 - 1) = 3.6%
For $1,000 bankroll: Bet $36 on that spread.
Kelly warning: Use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly. Full Kelly is too aggressive. Most pros use 1-2% flat betting anyway.
Flat Betting (Recommended for Beginners)
Same bet size every game (e.g., $20 on every spread bet).
Pros:
- Simple
- Reduces variance
- Easier to track performance
Cons:
- Doesn’t capitalize on higher-edge bets
- Doesn’t reduce exposure on risky bets
Spread Betting FAQ
Is point spread betting better than moneyline? Depends. Favorites: spread is safer (smaller stake for same payout). Underdogs: moneyline offers bigger payouts.
Why do some spreads have half-points (7.5) and others whole numbers (7)? Half-points eliminate push possibilities. Whole numbers allow pushes (bets refunded). Books prefer half-points to avoid refunds.
Can I parlay spread bets? Yes, but you must win all legs. A 2-team parlay on spreads usually pays +265 (2.65x return).
What happens if a game is canceled/postponed? All bets are refunded (push).
How much should I bet on each spread? 1-2% of bankroll for beginners, 0.5-1% for conservative bettors.
Spread Betting Summary
Point spread betting adds a layer of strategy to sports betting. Instead of just picking winners, you bet on margin of victory. The favorite must win by X points to cover; the underdog can lose by less than X points (or win) to cover.
Key takeaways:
- Understand what -7.5, +7.5, and juice mean
- Shop across books for best spreads and juice
- NFL: Key numbers (3, 7) matter most
- Buy the hook when worth the extra juice
- Never bet more than 1-2% of bankroll per game
- Check injuries and weather before betting
Smart spread betting = value, not favorites. Don’t bet on popular teams—bet on spreads where the number is wrong. That’s how you win long-term.
